DTN Midday Grain Comments 12/02 10:45
Green Grain Futures Midday Thursday
Corn trade is 9 to 10 cents higher, beans are 12 to 13 cents higher and
wheat is 25 to 28 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 470 points. The U.S. Dollar
Index is 0.10 higher. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are firmer
with crude up $1.10. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed with
gold down $16.00.
Corn trade is 9 to 10 cents higher at midday Thursday with trade snapping
back and broad ag strength Thursday morning as we continue to carve out a range
short term. Ethanol margins have narrowed with the energy move lower and
concerns about ethanol flat price out past Christmas as well with driving
demand holding up short term. Basis should remain steady to firmer short term
with fall field work likely to make good progress where supplies are available.
Weekly sales held up solidly at 1.021 million metric tons. On the March
contract we have resistance at the 20-day moving average at $5.77 which we are
just above at midday, then the lower Bollinger Band at $5.60 as support.
Soybean trade is 12 to 13 cents higher at midday with some short-term
dryness in the forecast for parts of South America along with product values
stabilizing to support trade along with 130,000 metric tons to China on the
daily wire and 164,100 to unknown. Meal is flat to $1.00 higher and oil is 0.60
cent to 0.70 cent higher. South America looks to continue short-term progress
with issues remaining limited for now, while the extended forecast trending
drier Thursday, especially for Argentina and Southern Brazil. Crush margins
remain solid but further product weakness would limit enthusiasm. Weekly export
sales faded a touch at 1.063 million of beans, 146,700 of meal and 49,300 of
oil. On the January soybean chart, we fell below the 20-day at $12.41 Monday
and are just below it at midday, with further support the lower Bollinger Band
Wheat trade is 25 to 28 cents higher as trade snaps back at midday with
export and quality concerns on the world front likely to help trade consolidate
after the early week pull back. The dollar is just above 96 points, continuing
to hold the upper end of the range with calmer trade. Weather in the Plains
looks little changed short term with longer-term dry concerns for the Southern
Plains heading towards dormancy. Spring wheat is weaker versus Chicago moving
the premium to 2.26 cents on the March, with KC at a 27-cent premium in weaker
action so far. Weekly export sales were poor at 79,900 metric tons. KC March
chart resistance is at the 20-day at $8.33, which we are back above at midday
with the recent low at $8.15 as the first level of support.
David Fiala can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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